JAKARTA, thekabarnews.com—The Indonesian government is targeting at least US$45 billion in nickel-related exports in 2026. It seeks to expand domestic processing and move further into higher-value manufacturing.

Coordinating Downstreaming and Energy Transition Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the target while representing President Prabowo Subianto at the opening of the 41st Trade Expo Indonesia in Tangerang on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026. Bahlil concurrently serves as the energy and mineral resources minister.

“Downstreaming is key to increasing the added value of Indonesia’s natural resources while strengthening national economic independence,” Bahlil said, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

The ministry said the value of nickel-related exports rose from approximately $3.3 billion in 2017–2018 to $34 billion in 2023. It claimed the figure exceeded $40 billion in 2025 after Indonesia stopped exporting unprocessed nickel ore. Furthermore, the government encouraged companies to build smelters and processing plants domestically.

The release, however, did not explain the statistical categories used to calculate the headline figure. Nickel-related export totals can vary significantly depending on whether they include only nickel and nickel products.

Additionally, totals may change if they also include stainless steel, battery materials and other downstream goods. The $45 billion figure should therefore be understood as a government target rather than a guaranteed export result.

Jakarta argues that processing raw materials inside Indonesia allows the country to capture more economic value than exporting ore alone. The government expects the policy to support domestic suppliers, improve industrial capabilities and create jobs.

Indonesia’s ambitions also reflect its dominant position in the global nickel market. The US Geological Survey estimated that the country produced 2.6 million tonnes of mined nickel in 2025. It also held reserves of about 62 million tonnes.

Those figures make Indonesia central to supply chains serving stainless steel producers and the electric-vehicle battery industry.

The government now wants to apply a similar strategy to other natural resources. Its national downstreaming roadmap covers 28 commodities across eight sectors and identifies potential investments of about $618 billion through 2040.

“I want to convey that our future master plan for Indonesia’s downstreaming program targets US$618 billion by 2040,” Bahlil said.

The roadmap includes minerals and coal as well as oil and gas. It also covers plantations, forestry, fisheries and marine commodities. According to the Investment and Downstreaming Ministry, this figure represents potential investment opportunities rather than funding that investors have already committed.

Indonesia’s nickel policy also faces international scrutiny. A World Trade Organization (WTO) panel ruled in 2022 that the country’s nickel-ore export ban and domestic processing requirement were inconsistent with global trade rules. Indonesia appealed the findings. However, the appeal remains unresolved while the WTO’s Appellate Body is unable to hear cases.

Reaching the 2026 target will ultimately depend on global nickel prices, demand for processed products and the timely completion of industrial projects. Moreover, the policy’s broader success will also depend on whether export growth produces lasting gains in technology, employment and domestic industrial capacity.