Thekabarnews.com—Analysts project that the price of RON 92 gasoline, widely known as Pertamax, will rise sharply in May 2026. This is because global crude oil prices remain above US$100 per barrel through the end of April.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have spurred a recent spike in global oil prices. As a result, these tensions regularly shake the world’s energy supply lines. They also add to upward pressure on benchmark crude prices.

The domestic gasoline prices in Indonesia are under pressure from the increasing West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices. These benchmarks have reached their highest levels since June 2022.

“Pertamax is expected to go up from Rp12,300 a liter now to Rp16,550 per liter,” Lukman Leong, chief analyst of Doo Financial Futures, said.

Crude oil is about 60 to 70 percent of the components that go into fuel pricing. He said international oil prices are the most important factor in domestic fuel modifications.

“When crude oil prices stay above $100 per barrel, they put greater pressure on non-subsidized fuel prices like Pertamax,” Lukman said.

FITRA researcher Badiul Hadi also had a similar projection but at a smaller scale.

It estimates the price of Pertamax to be between Rp13,800 and Rp14,500 per liter. Furthermore, Pertamax Turbo may go for Rp21,000 to Rp22,000 per liter.

But so far, Pertamina has been holding the prices of Pertamax, Pertalite, and Bio Solar. Such action is done to maintain the stability of the economy. It also aims to safeguard the purchasing power of the public.

However, Pertamina changed the prices of some other non-subsidized fuels such as Pertamax Turbo, Dexlite, and Pertamina Dex on April 18.

“Decisions on gasoline prices still follow the regulations from the Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Ministry, which use international reference prices as the principal reference,” the corporation added.

They stressed the need to balance market realities with general economic stability in pricing policy.

The longer high prices run into May, the more difficult it may be to maintain prices at current levels. Such a scenario will happen absent any fiscal stimulus or price changes, economists added.

Higher fuel prices might also create broader inflationary pressures. These increases could harm transportation expenses, food distribution, and household spending across a range of sectors.

The uncertainty surrounding Pertamax pricing warns consumers that global political tensions can directly increase living costs.

Pertamina said it will continue monitoring the situation in the global market. Additionally, it will work closely with the government to determine future prices.

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