Economists say the 2026 APBN is risky and that spending should be cut

Jakarta, Thekabarnews.com—Some economists have raised concerns about Indonesia’s economy in 2026. They say that if the country’s revenue goals are too high and the economy doesn’t meet them, it could put a strain on the state budget (APBN).

A senior economist at Universitas Paramadina, Wijayanto Samirin, said he didn’t like the government’s plan to raise taxes by 21 percent next year. He said that the goal was very unrealistic. This is particularly true given the current state of the economy. 

“It will be very hard to get more money in 2026. The economy is still dire, and a 21 percent rise in tax revenue is not realistic,” Wijayanto said.

He said that if the government keeps spending a lot of money and not collecting enough taxes, the deficit could get too big to be safe. In his opinion, the deficit could be between 3.5 percent and 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This amount is more than Indonesia’s usual cautious fiscal goals.

The goal of Indonesia’s fiscal framework is to keep the budget deficit at a reasonable level. This will keep the economy stable and investors happy. Economists say the government may have to borrow more if it doesn’t match income to spending. As a result, the government could raise its public debt.

Wijayanto said that the most important thing to do right now is to stop buying things that you don’t need. He said that the state should wait to start big strategic programs that put a lot of stress on the budget. This should happen when the state’s income levels off.

“The government needs to make efficiency its top priority. We may have to put off big projects that are not urgent to keep the economy healthy,” he added.

Analysts say that for tax revenue to go up by more than 10 percent, the economy usually needs to grow quickly. People need to follow the rules better, and the system needs to change. However, it might be harder to get money because of problems with the economy at home. Moreover, changes in commodity prices and uncertainty around the world make things worse.

As Indonesia works on its budget plan for 2026, policymakers have a tough job. Policymakers must maintain economic growth while maintaining budget balance. If people make clear plans and have realistic expectations, economists say they will need to trust the market.

As Indonesia tries to recover from the pandemic and deal with changes in the global economy, the debate brings up bigger questions about the country’s long-term fiscal health.